Wheat feed consumption and substitution continue to decline, wheat rise road is difficult


Since 2020, with the recovery of breeding industry and the expansion of corn deep processing, the domestic corn price has entered a rising channel, and realized the price of wheat and corn upside down in the second half of 2020. Subsequently, the wheat market price has been rising with the boost of feeding demand.The reason why the wheat market acquisition situation in 2021 is complicated is that the demand for wheat feed conversion is high.But corn’s support for wheat is waning as hog prices remain low and corn prices ease.According to the market, since the new wheat market in 2021, the price of high open high, feed breeding enterprises have also changed the acquisition ideas, to purchase poor quality feed grain to avoid direct competition with the traditional acquisition main body.As corn prices continue to loosen, wheat feed demand ushered in a bearish trend.Since the fourth quarter of 2019, the price difference between wheat and corn in the current wheat market has continued to be inverted, and the feeding consumption of wheat has increased significantly.Since the beginning of 2021, the price of corn is still at a high level, and the price difference between corn and wheat has reached the limit in past years. Under the influence of low breeding profits and high raw material costs, most feed enterprises choose low-priced wheat and other grains to replace corn.Wheat, rice and other grain stocks that are overdue in the year are also being used for feeding. Feed enterprises are less receptive to high-priced corn, and the phenomenon of grain substitution is still common.Wheat substitution has been expanded from poultry feed to pig feed, and the regional scope is also expanding. The proportion of feed substitution has shown an overall growth trend, and some enterprises have begun to use whole-grain formula.For example, wheat in pig feed can completely replace corn, 20-30% in poultry feed can completely replace corn, and aquatic feed can completely replace corn.But as the change of market prices for corn, wheat market has also come under certain influence, according to the understanding of the current north China mainstream manufacturers gb second-class ordinary wheat purchase price is 2880 ~ 2890 yuan/ton, corn is 2740 ~ 2780 yuan/ton, wheat, corn, spreads and spreads of wheat and corn for 110 ~ 140 yuan/ton, the wheat corn spread significantly,Due to cost considerations, feed enterprises use brown rice, imported grain and corn as feed, and wheat demand decreases.Some feed enterprises said that in the 2020/2021 feed production formula, the use of wheat accounted for more than 70% of the energy feed, which has been reduced to less than 10%. According to some feed producers in South China, they have suspended the use of domestic wheat due to the high price of wheat in the early stage, and there are also farmers and enterprises in North China.Before buying the store wheat has been finished, now difficult to buy from the market to the forage wheat, therefore also basic rarely used wheat as feed ingredients, start to use low-quality corn, according to the national grain and oils information center, is expected to 2021/2022 wheat forage consumption in our country and the loss or will only 35.6 million tons, 2.4 million tons less than last year or so.Wheat feed consumption quantity reduction, bad current wheat market.A total of 500,000 tons of wheat produced from 2014 to 2019 were released yesterday, including 95,000 tons in Anhui, 331,000 tons in Henan, 30,000 tons in Zhejiang, 19,000 tons in Shaanxi, 10,700 tons in Shandong, 2,000 tons in Ningxia and 16,000 tons in Hebei. The release of jiangsu has been suspended this time, and shandong and Zhejiang have been added.Post-holiday reserve wheat round out the auction stocks and policy stability at all levels, all regions on the number of different natural will make regional price differentiation, but in the whole store of wheat to some extent the wheat market years ago the supply pressure, market stocks increased supply, and demand for wheat flour sales relative to turn pale at the present stage,Wheat prices are expected to maintain a high range of shocks in the short term, in the short term up weak.

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